From Peak Office to Peak Peacock

The Clash Between Return-to-Office and the Trillion-Dollar Real Estate Debt Crisis

A peacocking peacock, Lisbon, Portugal — Photo by Author

Corporate America is desperate to justify its expensive office spaces.

That seems to be a key driver behind recent sweeping “return to office” mandates from major companies like Apple, Disney, and JP Morgan.

Office occupancy rates sit around just 20–25% of pre-pandemic levels.

But these directives seem curiously out of touch. Surveys show a full third of workers want permanent remote work. The data doesn’t support the notion that most employees are clamoring to return to the office five days a week.

So what explains this dissonance? Stanford Professor Nick Bloom provides a compelling hypothesis: RTO mandates are a “fire alarm” signaling business troubles ahead. When companies announce sweeping return plans that ignore employee preferences, Bloom argues investors should sell their stock and workers should polish up their resumes.

There are liabilities lurking behind these defiant stances. Up to $1.5 trillion in US commercial real estate debt needs refinancing soon. Without workers back at their desks, these giant office spaces become questionable assets.

RTO mandates also let old-school managers reassert command-and-control leadership. Like peacocks 🦚 fanning their feathers, on-site managers can showcase status and contributions more readily when surrounded by their reports.

The days of corporate peacocking seem numbered. Trends like self-organizing teams, and expiring office leases all point to decentralization.

But for now, sweeping RTO mandates let managers posture mightily and avoid hard questions about unused offices.

Read the full articles here :-

Peak Office

The Last Call of the Corporate Peacock 🦚

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Andy Spence is an independent Workforce Futurist.

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